The dashed line means the path is a guess. When the plane stopped sending GPS signals, Flightradar draws a straight dashed line to the direction the plane was heading to when losing the contact, and continues the path on the same speed until the real location of the plane is known again.
And then the dashed line moves to go to where the plane has actually gone in that time.
So, the plane hasn’t been there, this is just how Flightradar reacts to the Russia’s GPS jamming.
That’s what world leaders are using, though.
In this case Ukraine gaining support by communicating using a medium used by international diplomacy outweighs the cons of Twitter getting more visibility.
Politicians should migrate to other platforms as well, but Zelenskyj is about the last person to have to take the first step!
If Musk was to tamper with Zelenskyj’s visibility on Twitter, it would get noticed. It would probably backlash quite big time.
Still, it would be awesome if world politicians could please migrate to Bluesky or even Mastodon. Maybe write all messages in two systems until the migration is reasonably ready.
Through the whole of 2024 the Russia was advancing faster than anyone expected.
During that year, they managed to occupy 0.7 % of Ukraine’s territory. Which basically rounds to zero.
the Russia now works mainly without military vehicles. Even if there was a complete collapse of the Ukrainian front, the Russia would be less able to exploit it than they were able to advance in northern parts of Ukraine in spring 2022. I’d say that the best the Russia can do is to advance about ten times as much as in 2024. That is, they could maybe occupy another 7% of Ukraine’s territory. USA can of course try helping by lifting the sanctions, but EU won’t coöperate with that.
If USA blocks Ukraine from getting air defence missiles, the Ukrainian electricity distribution will be in deep trouble. Not the end of the world right now, when it’s already spring in Ukraine, but the next winter might get seriously bad even if the Russia has already lost by that point.
If the EU stays supporting Ukraine, it won’t lose before the Russia does. But it might be in for its most painful year in this war 😢
💛💙 Дякую, Україно! 💛💙
Tanks: that’s a good number. The Russia is producing 150 tanks per year, so 11 in just one day is a great amount!
I’m especially happy about the over 60 artillery pieces – remember, although the Russia isn’t getting halfway as much ammunition as it would need for another Bakhmut, its biggest problem is with artillery barrels. And this helps them get rid of their barrels!
107 vehicles is okay. There’s a campaign for destroying Russian rubber-tyred logistics, so this number should be retained constantly at a high level.
The 1050 for soldiers is dangerously low. The Russian army basically gains a few hundred soldiers for each day where it loses only 1000. Not a catastrophically low amount, but a little bit under the sustainable minimum. Hopefully it will grow again!
I think it’s mainly about a relative lack of drones. They do have a lot of them, but each attack takes several. Remember that these drones are purpose-built devices varying in size from half a metre to over five metres, not civilian quadcopters.
Secondarily, you indeed need to locate the logistics bases, and the you need to observe them to know where the target is being stored and figure out what is the target’s weakest spot.
But mostly it’s a matter of production capacity. They build enough drones to make an attack, then they attack. And then they need to wait until they have enough for the next attack. It works, because replacing an ammunition depot takes far longer time than replacing the drones used for destroying it.
Every day the Russia is not stopped makes a nuclear war more probable. This has been said since 2022, and it remains true.
That’s precisely what was said in the comment you replied to.
The number of soldiers sent this time was estimated by the South Korean intelligence service to be between 1000 and 3000 soldiers. It doesn’t make a dent to DPRK’s military, and it also doesn’t affect the war against humanity very much, because the Russia loses that many soldiers per day or two.
They’ve got tens and tens of this size, but not hundreds and hundreds.
One such explosion destroys typically ammunition worth a couple of weeks of use. It does hurt the Russian military quite nicely, but it’s not something that alone could end the war. It’s one of the many things that, when all done, will together win Ukraine the war.
It forces the Russia to send more meatwaves, which is a good thing: their ability to recruit soldiers has not been able to increase from the level of 25 000 to 35 000 per month, so if mire than 1000 soldiers.are removed from their army per month, their army shrinks.
I don’t think this one was dementia. Qt least not primarily. He’s used to gaslighting in his personal life, and here he’s simply gaslighting the whole world on television. If there’s some dementia to this, then that is not to understand that you cannot gaslight a million people at once, because the point of gaslighting is to make its victim think they are going crazy and imagining things.
Though… Can it be that for the MAGA audience this gaslighting does work and they really will believe Trump has never called Zelenskyj a dictator?
According to this, the French intelligence assumes the Russian artillery shell production to be 3,7 million per year. That translates to quite precisely 10 000 shells per day. Here’s the image that shows the numbers:
This looks like an exercise you’ll be doing for the rest of your life. Jump left, jump front, jump right, dive down. Until the end of your days about 25 seconds later.
But, maybe it helps the soldiers feel safe, so they are less likely to revolt before it’s too late?
Hm… A brigade consists of 3000 to 7000 soldiers. And the article says “many” have one or several amputees. That would mean something between 1 in 7000 and 5 in 3000. Yeah, that’s in the ballpark of a tenth of a percent or a hundredth of a percent. True, not terribly significant. Though, many of them are probably good trainers!
This is actually very important news that is contrary to what I have thought! The Russia mostly is not able to give prostethic legs to its wounded soldiers, Ukraine is. That changes the military loss ratios dramatically!
The ratio of total military losses between Ukraine and the Russia has been around 1:2½, while the ratio between populations is 1:3½. However, the ratio between dead is 1:4½. Anything where the ratio is smaller than the population ratio is favouring Ukraine. Now, if a sizable amount of the non-dead military losses in Ukraine are able to return to duty, then a large share of those are not military losses at all! That would mean that even in the number of military losses including the wounded Ukraine is doing better than the Russia. What share of the “irrecoverable” wounds are losses of limbs? Does anyone know?
Many European countries have patriot missiles. They probably not allowed to be exported anywhere without a permission from USA, and if you ignore such an export restriction, you’ll end up in trouble when trying to procure arms the next time. Or, might end up. After what Trump’s done, it could very well be that this would be considered a force majeure situation. We are defending ourselves from the Russia, and of course we must be allowed to use our AD missiles for that.
So, we should probably just send to Ukraine all patriot missiles we have got and immediatelly order a lot of NASAMS and IRIS and SAMP platforms and missiles to replace them.