Some say incursion achieved many goals while others wonder if it cost Ukrainian lives for no tangible gain
  • Riddick3001@lemmy.worldOP
    171·
    5 days ago

    Ukraine did what they had they to do. It’s only commendable how fast Ukraine did it, and how long they have lasted. Now they are strategically withdrawing following the flow of war and recent events.

    Also quote: " We have no wish to occupy this territory,” Zelenskyy’s aide Mykhailo Podolyak told the Guardian in late August. “Our tasks are to push Russian artillery and other systems further away, destroy the warehouses and other military infrastructure that is there, and also to affect public opinion in Russia.”

    (ed): Found recently this explanation Ukraine matters YT

    • Tuukka R@sopuli.xyzM
      111·
      6 days ago

      I don’t think Ukraine will give away all of the Russian territory it’s holding. I believe the most important reason they took over the parts of the Kursk province was that Trump had promised to get an armistice to Ukraine in one day – and since the only way to push that through in such a timeframe would be to force Ukraine, in a way or another, to accept a deal where the current front becomes a de facto international border.

      That would then give the Russian army time to recuperate, maybe even for half a year or a whole year, and then continue attacking. Currently the Russia’s biggest problem is that they are losing soldiers as fast as they can recruit them, or even faster. That means, they can never take the time to train their soldiers, which results in an abysmal level of skills. And that increases their losses, which makes it again impossible to train more soldiers. Etc. It would be very useful for the Russia to get a longer ceasefire like that.

      But…

      As long as Ukraine is holding a little bit of the Russia, Putin cannot accept such an armistice. It would mean giving parts of the Russia to Ukraine for a prolonged time, and that would be a political suicide in the Russia. That means – because of the Kursk province, Ukraine has been able to be sure that Putin will say “no” to almost any armistice. He would only accept one where Ukraine has to give away the territories it holds in the Russia, and that’s not really something that international diplomacy can offer him.

      Ukraine is currently holding to almost half, or at least around a third of the Russian territory it was holding a month ago. That is probably enough to keep Putin from agreeing to an armistice that would kill Ukraine.

      What Ukraine is not saying aloud is that the Russia attacking Ukrainian forces in the Kursk province is an extremely good thing – if they need to attack somewhere then preferably in the Russia and not in Ukraine. Their way of attacking has been to completely obliterate the villages they are taking over. Either they obliterate their own villages instead of Ukrainian ones, or they use different tactics that cause a lot more Russian casualties than the indiscriminatory bombarding does. The Russia has been doing something halfways between these: It has indeed bombarded its own villages, but with a much lower intensity than when bombarding Ukrainian villages. So, this means the Russia has suffered surplus losses, and many Ukrainian civilians have retained their homes intact.