cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/40374512

Electoral Renewal Canada on Bluesky

Did strategic voting matter in the Ontario Election?

My verdict is that a large number of people DID vote strategically in this election. However, I don’t believe it was a determining factor.

It did deliver a massive advantage to sitting MPPs. Let’s look at the numbers. (1/6)

🟧 NDP incumbents performed remarkably well.

Avg. NDP candidate: -5.5% (compared to '22) Ridings NDP won in '22: -0.7% Ridings w/ NDP inc. running for re-election: +3.0% (‼️)

This difference is unusual, but it’s quite clear that the NDP benefitted >when they had a strong name to rally around. (2/6)

🟥 Liberal incumbents also overperformed.

Avg. OLP candidate: +6.1 Ridings w/ Liberal incumbent running for re-election: +13.4

In all elections, incumbents do have a name recognition advantage, but beating the median by more than 7% is notable. (3/6)

Here’s why I think strategic voting was at play. Here is he swing for:

🟧 NDP candidates in OLP ridings: -10.0% (4.5% below avg.)

🟥 OLP candidates in NDP ridings: +0.8% (5.3% below avg.)

I think this shows, when there was a clear name to rally around, a noticeable % of NDP and OLP voters did (4/6)

Here is where I dispel some enthusiasm.

In 2018, if you bundled Liberal and NDP votes into one party, they would have won 82 seats.

In 2022, that number was down to 71.

In 2025, it was 61. Which means that even with “perfect” strategic voting, there would be no majority for the coalition. (5/6)

The fact is that, even as it seems that many Ontarians did attempt to vote strategically, it did not impact the outcome of the election.

If voters are frustrated that a third consecutive Ford government is being upheld by a 40% majority, perhaps we should consider proportional representation. (6/6)